The WWII Bomber Conundrum: A Lesson in Perspective
It was in the midst of World War II. The U.S. military faced a desperate challenge. Their bomber planes were being shot down at alarming rates over enemy territory. To protect their crews and improve mission success, military strategists examined the returning planes carefully. They mapped the bullet holes peppered across the aircraft and concluded the obvious — those areas riddled with damage were the most vulnerable and needed extra armor.
But a mathematician and statistician named Abraham Wald saw the problem through a radically different lens. Instead of focusing on where the damage was, he asked a critical question: what about the planes that didn’t come back? The bullet holes in returning planes showed where they could take damage and still survive. The real danger zones were the parts of the planes with no bullet holes — because hits in those areas were catastrophic, causing the planes to be lost entirely.
Wald’s insight flipped conventional thinking on its head. Rather than adding armor where the planes showed damage, the military reinforced the parts with little or no visible harm. This strategic pivot saved countless lives and improved the odds of planes making it home safely.
This remarkable example of avoiding “survivorship bias” resonates far beyond military strategy. If you pause to consider, it serves as a powerful cautionary tale for entrepreneurs and investors navigating today’s startup landscape.
Let’s take a closer look at how this concept plays out in the world of startups — and why understanding it could make all the difference between fleeting success and lasting growth.
Applying the Lesson to Startups
Just like the military initially focused on the bullet holes they could see, entrepreneurs and investors often fixate on the ‘headline-grabbing’ successes. But this narrow focus can paint an incomplete—and sometimes misleading—picture of what it really takes to build a successful startup.
- Overlooking Failures – For every startup that becomes a household name, there are dozens – or hundreds – of others with similar ideas that quietly disappear. These silent failures rarely make the news, but they hold vital lessons. Ignoring them can give entrepreneurs a false sense of confidence, making certain strategies seem foolproof when, in reality, many have tried them and yet failed.
- Misattributing Success – We often hear about the bold moves and breakthrough innovations behind a startup’s rise. But success depends not just on tactics—also timing, market conditions, and sometimes just plain luck. Without this broader context, it’s easy to mistake one-off wins for a formula everyone can follow, setting unrealistic expectations.
- Underestimating Risk – When we only study the survivors, it’s tempting to downplay how risky entrepreneurship really is. This can breed overconfidence, poor planning, and missed warning signs. The startup journey uncertain, and preparing for setbacks is as vital as chasing growth.
Strategies to Mitigate Survivorship Bias
Building a resilient business means looking beyond just the stories of success. It calls for a broader, more balanced perspective.
1. Study Failures – Take time to understand why some startups didn’t make it. Their experiences often reveal hidden challenges and pitfalls that success stories might gloss over.
2. Diversify Perspectives – Expand your perspective beyond the usual success stories. Seek insights from varied industries, markets, and those who’ve faced failure.
3. Data-Driven Decisions – Rely on comprehensive data—one that captures both wins and losses—to inform your strategies. This balanced view helps avoid blind spots and grounds your strategy.
5. Continuous Learning – Foster a culture that values learning from mistakes as much as celebrating wins. This openness builds stronger foundations for the future.
Conclusion
The story of Abraham Wald and the WWII bombers reminds us that the most important lessons often come from what’s unseen. In startups, learning from failures is as important as studying success. This balanced perspective helps entrepreneurs make smarter decisions, build stronger strategies, and increase their chances of lasting growth. Ultimately, embracing the full spectrum—the wins, the losses, and everything in between—helps chart a smarter, more sustainable path to success.
At Zawter, we’ve seen firsthand how early-stage businesses benefit from understanding both success and failure stories. Whether it’s helping a D2C brand plug revenue leakages or guiding a startup through due diligence with a realistic lens, we help founders avoid common traps by applying these insights. If you’re building or scaling a business and want to discuss how to bring this lens into your strategy, we’d love to connect.
Remember, the biggest business risk might be invisible… ‘survivorship bias’. And, it could be hiding in plain sight—in every success story you admire!
